5 Key Takeaways From the Iowa Caucus Debacle

by Jeff Taylor

18h ago

No one could have predicted the Iowa caucus would still be technically undecided and causing this much trouble four days after it was held, but here we are, because in 2020, all bets are apparently off.

The headlines out of the nation’s first state caucus are still flying in, and even ardent political observers would be forgiven for wanting to throw up their hands and move on completely, especially with the New Hampshire primary just four days away.

The outlook from Iowa is still a bit blurry, but here’s what we do know at this point.

1. There’s Still No Clear Winner

   First Pete Buttigieg declared himself the winner in Iowa, with zero precincts reporting, relying on internal figures. Then, with 97% of precincts reporting, Sanders countered by declaring himself victorious in the state.

   In fact, there is still no clear winner in the race, even with 100% of precincts now reporting. Sanders and Buttigieg are locked in what amounts to a virtual tie, with Sanders picking up more votes and Buttigieg picking up slightly more state delegate equivalents (564 to Sanders’ 562).

   While the Iowa Democratic Party announced Buttigieg the narrow winner, the Associated Press—on which most media outlets rely to determine the results of races—has said it cannot declare a winner in the race, citing “evidence the party has not accurately tabulated some of its results, including those released late Thursday that the party reported as complete.”

2. Buttigieg and Sanders Enjoy Bumps in Popularity, Especially Buttigieg

   While both Buttigieg and Sanders were robbed of a night to bask in the glory of a victory, due to the close tally as well as the state Democratic Party’s botch job, they did experience a bump in support for their impressive showings.

   Both candidates saw their poll numbers tick up in New Hampshire and nationally, especially Buttigieg. A poll conducted by 7 News and Emerson College from February 3-5 showed the former mayor gaining ground on front-runner Sanders, with 21% to Sanders’ 31% support. That same poll now has him at 23%, compared to 24% for Sanders, effectively tying both candidates for first place.

   A national poll, conducted by Morning Consult, showed Sanders gaining 3%, making him the new leader at 25%, with Biden dropping to second nationally at 24%, after losing 5% in support. Buttigieg ticked up 5%, putting him at 12%, behind Michael Bloomberg, at 15%.

3. Biden Is the Clear Loser

   While we might not be able to declare any one candidate the decisive winner in Iowa, there is a clear loser: Joe Biden.

   Biden has been running largely on an electability platform, arguing he is best suited to take on and beat Trump in a general election. Biden’s poor performance in Iowa, where he finished fourth behind not only Sanders and Buttigieg but also Elizabeth Warren, makes that argument a much harder sell. He has admitted the results were a “gut punch” and has taken a more aggressive approach against his opponents—including moving resources to New Hampshire, where he will need to have a strong showing.

4. Warren Should Also Be Worried

   Warren didn’t have as tough a night as Biden, but the results out of Iowa were still worrying for her candidacy. The senator was able to capture just 18% of the vote, compared to Buttigieg’s 26.2% and Sanders’ 26.1%. She will need a strong showing in New Hampshire to turn around the narrative that she is on her way out of the race, especially with polling in Nevada, which votes next after New Hampshire, showing her a distant third behind Sanders and Biden.

   Also worryingly for Warren, she is also a distant third in New Hampshire, behind Sanders and Buttigieg, and is only narrowly ahead of Biden there as well, according to the aforementioned Emerson poll.

5. Perez Calls for Recanvass Amid Calls for Him to Resign

   If Biden is Iowa’s clear loser, then Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez is the runner-up for worst showing. Perez is calling for a recanvass in Iowa, as many Democrats call for him to resign his position.

   A recanvass is a review of the worksheets from each caucus site to ensure accuracy.

   The IDP will continue to report results.

   — Tom Perez (@TomPerez) February 6, 2020

   Perez was already a controversial figure before declaring the need for a recanvass, which he cannot make happen on his own, although his voice carries weight on such determinations. The Iowa Democratic Party has said it will recanvass if asked to, but doesn’t appear to be itching to do so.

   The WikiLeaks hack in 2016 showed him telling the Clinton campaign he was looking “forward to my appearance on Telemundo tomorrow where I can trumpet her strong support among Latinos and put a fork once and for all in the false narrative about Bernie and Latinos.”

   Calling for a recanvass after establishment candidate Biden did poorly and Sanders did well has opened Perez to a new wave of criticism.