Is Pete Buttigieg Arizona’s New Frontrunner for 2020?

by Kate Sosin

14h ago

Gay presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg is biting at the heels of President Trump in a key swing state, according to new poll numbers released on Monday.

The out mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is in a statistical dead heat with Trump in Arizona. Former Vice President Joe Biden is also evenly matched with Trump but losing ground, the Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights found.

“Depending on who Democrats select as their nominee, the Grand Canyon State may be in for one of the tightest presidential races in memory,” said Mike Noble, chief of research at OH Predictive Insights, in a press statement. “The biggest surprise is that of the steady rise of Buttigieg in the last six months—the big ‘MO’ is on the South Bend mayor’s side.”

OH Predictive Insights’ poll found that Buttigieg is polling at 43% against Trump’s 45%. Biden slipped four percentage points, putting him at 44% to Trump’s 46%. Those leads fall well within the poll’s 3.9 percentage point margin of error.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren currently trails Trump at 41% to 47%, while Sen. Bernie Sanders falls far behind with 34% to 47%. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg polls at 40% against Trump’s 47%.

If correct, the new data suggests a sea of change in Arizona, a critical swing state for the 2020 election. Last month, The New York Times reported that only Biden and Warren were favored over Trump in the state. The poll didn’t even consider Buttigieg, who is now a frontrunner in New Hampshire.

That same Times report also suggested Biden was the only Democratic candidate could realistically best Trump in the general election.

Meanwhile, a NewNowNext analysis from October found that if all unregistered LGBTQ voters made it to the polls, Democratic frontrunners could beat Trump in the key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.